CAN INDIA BECOME A DEVELOPED COUNTRY?

What makes a country developed? The obvious indicators are the wealth of the nation, the prosperity of its people and its standing in the international forum. There are many indicators regarding the wealth of a nation: the Gross National Product (GNP), the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the Balance of Payments, foreign exchange reserves, rate of economic growth, per capita income, etc. in addition, the volume of trade, the share in international trade and rate of growth in both of these also provides and idea about the strength of the economy and its ability to sustain the wealth created and to create more. Economic indicators are important, but they provide only a part of the picture. The numbers, impressive though they may appear, can veil considerable human misery, especially that of the common people. In this context, I and Rajan have often discussed something I observed during my stint at the Defence Research & Development Laboratory (DRDL), Hyderabad. I came across three persons there who became in my mind points of reference that called me back unceasingly to certain issues. Venkat had two sons and a daughter. All were graduates and employed. Living in the same area was Kuppu who had three sons. He succeeded in educating only one. He lived in a rented dwelling. Karuppan had two daughters and one son. He was semi-employed, could not educate any of them because of poverty and had no regular dwelling place. Was it not possible for him to merely give a normal life to his offspring and not an unreaslistic or extraordinary one? A reasonable lifespan, an occupation that would provide them basic comforts and good health care? This is our dream of a developed India.

Per capita income can indicate the wealth in the hands of people. Per capita income does not indicate that they all have the same amount of money. It is the average of the rich and poor. The same per capita figure also does not indicate the amount of well-being within a country or even within a state or region. For purposes of global comparisons, a new parameter, such as purchasing power parity, is nowsdays being used. Complex models are also being discussed, debated and used as indices of human development. All of them only present certain facets of living conditions. These statistics do no indicate the long –term sustainability of the quality of life achieved by people.

 People and Development

Many parameters are utilized to indicate how well people are fed; their overall nutritional status; the availability of good nutrition during various phases of their growth and lives; the average life expectancy; the infant mortality rate; the availability of sanitation; the availability of drinking water and its quality; the quantum of living space; broad categories of human habitat; the incidence of various diseases, dysfunctions, disorders or disabilities; the access to medical facilities; literacy; the availability of schools and educational facilities; various levels of skills to cope with fast-changing economic and social demands; and so on.

One can include many other indicators of the quality of life. Still there is a nagging worry when we apply the talisman prescribed by Gandhiji. Gandhiji strikingly simple criterion was that every action proposed or contemplated, should in its implementation wipe the tears of a poor and downtrodden person. He emphasized that only when we have wiped the tears from the faces of all, have we truly arrived as a nation.

Even when one applies the much less stringent Neuruvian vision for the elimination of ignorance, illiteracy, poverty, disease and inequalities in opportunities, the task of realizing such a vision through the missions that would follow appears difficult. They did not appear difficult at the time of our independence. Most Indians were ignited by the time of our tryst with destiny? Are we as nation still inspired with that vision after fifty years? We are not unaware of the growing pessimism and even cynicism when one discusses the question of India reaching the status of a developed nation. We believe, moreover, that while aggregated indicators are important, it does not make sense to achieve a ‘developed’ status with out a major and continuing upliftment of all Indians who exist today and of the many more millions who would be added in the years to come. They should all have a secure and enjoyable ‘present’ and also be in a position to look forward to a better ‘future’. Such a developed India is what we are looking for.

I was in my teens when India became independent. The headmaster of my school used to take us to hear the news on the only available radio. We used to hear of the events in Delhi, and many speeches and commentaries. I used to distribute the morning newspaper Dinamani to households in Rameswaram, to help my brother with his work. While going on my daily morning round I also read the news items. One report which particularly struck me appeared in the heady days following independence. It was a time of celebration and the country’s leaders were gathered in delhi, addressing themselves to the momentous tasks that faced the government. At this moment, however, far from being at the center of power, the father of the nation, Mahatma Gandhi, was away in Noakhali caring for the riot victims and trying to heal the wounds inflicted by communal rioting. How many persons would have such courage of conviction as did Gandhiji at a time when the nation was at his command? It is that kind of deep and unshakeable commitment to the well-being of all Indians that underlies the vision of a developed India.

Strategic Strengths

The achievement of independence was of utmost importance to us. The implications of subservience to another power remain as abhorrent today in this era of economic rather than military domination. Globalization, which means integration with the world economy, brings the influence of external forces into our society. Some experts may point out that these are economic or trade or market forces and they have beneficial influence in terms of developing our ‘core competencies’ in areas in which we have ‘comparative advantage’. We also share the view that competition, both internally and with other global players would be useful to make the country efficient and strong. But we would also like a point out that developed countries have set up several non-tariff barriers which strike at the roots of ‘ideal’ competition based on ‘market’ forces. These are mostly aimed at denying opportunities to other countries to reach a developed status. Even when one country prepares to cope with a set of barriers introduced by these developed countries, either through their own laws or through multilateral treaties, a new set of complex barriers crops up. Even a simple analysis of many of these international or global transactions indicates a much deeper fact: the continuous process of domination over others by a few nations. India has to be prepared to face such selectively targeted actions by more powerful players even when it tries to match ahead to realize its vision of reaching a developed status.

Issues of national security are no longer simple considerations of defence but are closely interwined with many aspects of trade, commerce, investment as well as creation and use of a knowledge base. What appears to be emerging is a new kind of warfare. If a country does not learn to master these new realities of life, all our aspirations to ensure the prosperity of our people may come to nought. This does not mean the advocacy of isolation or going back to the concepts of a nuts- bolts form of self –reliance. We need to address newer and more sophisticated concepts of protecting our strategic interests.

Technologies as a core strength of the nation

In this book we focus on the technological imperatives for India to develop her internal strengths, keeping in mind there dynamic dimensions”

• the people
• the overall economy
• the strategic interests.

These technological imperatives also take into account a ‘fourth’ dimension, time, an offshoot of modern-day dynamism in business, trade, and technology that leads to continually shifting targets. We believe that technological strengths are especially crucial in dealing with this fourth dimension underlying continuous change.

The progress of technology lies at the heart of human history, as illustrated in table 1.1. technological  strengths are the key to creating more productive employment in an increasingly competitive market place and to continually upgrade human skills. Without a pervasive use of technologies, we cannot achieve overall development of our people in the years to come. Technology is important as well in combating the dangers posed by existing and newer forms of diseases.

The direct linkages of technology of the nation’s strategic strengths are becoming more and more clear, especially since the last decade. India’s own strength in a number of core areas still puts it in a position of reasonable strength in geo-political terms. Any nation aspiring to become a developed and also the ability to continually upgrade them through its own creative strengths.

For people-oriented actions as well, whether for the creation of large-scale productive employment or for ensuring nutritional and health security for people, or for better or for better living conditions, technology is the only vital input. From the early discoveries of X-ray as a diagnostic tool or penicillin as an antibiotic or vaccination for preventive health care, we have come a long way. There are many specialized and affordable diagnostic tools, new medicines with negligible with side –effects; and there are many possibilities on the horizon with the emergence of molecular biology. The absence of greater technological impetus could lead to lower productivity and wastage of precious natural resources. Activities with low productivity or low value addition, in the final analysis, hurt the poorest the most.

Just as in any other human activity, there would also be some side-effects accompanying the application of some technologies. These need to be removed: partly through a better knowledge of all our people and partly through technological solutions. There is a tendency nowadays to highlight the problems of technology which borders on defeatism. Environment pollution does tent to increase with unbridled technological growth. China is a telling example. Yet, technology can also provide a cost-effective solution to pollution when the same factories are linked to a cleaner technology. The technological imperatives to lift our people to a new life, and to a life they are entitled to, is an important theme which is elaborated in all chapters of this book.

Table 1.1 - Growth of technologies and human impact

The linkages between technologies and economic strengths have been well researched for over two decades. The economic imperatives for acquiring technological strengths do not warrant repetition here. However, this connection has not become a part of the thinking of many in positions of leadership, whether in government, industry or elsewhere. An India aspiring to become a major economic players in terms of trade and increase in GDP cannot do it on the strength of turnkey projects designed and built abroad or only through large-scale imports of plant machinery, equipment and know how. Even while being alive to the short-term realities, medium- and long term strategies to develop core technological strengths within our industry are vital for envisioning a developed India. Our studies indicate that the vision for the nation is only possible through identifying such core strengths and building on them.

Thus, looking at all four dimensions i.e. (1) People, (2) Economy, (3) Strategic strengths and (4) Ability to sustain and improve on these over very long periods of time in the future it would appear that over very long periods of time in the future it would appear that mastering of technologies is the key task to which the country and its people have to give importance. This can be considered to be the very essence of development. An India aspiring to a developed status must have a technology vision. The dynamics to this vision are discussed and developed in further chapters.

 A vision for the economy

 A Technology Vision for a nation may be constituted byintegrating date on the overall economy with social dimensions of development. The back ground of the TIFAC study were several studies done within India, some detailed and some already focused on in the plan documents. The authors also had the benefit of discussions with a number of persons to understand the realities, constraints and aspirations behind various projections of growth rates. In addition, underlying the overall economic indicators are several assumptions about implementation which involve investment, enabling administrative, fiscal or legal measures, ability to mobilize human resources and so on. It is not possible to envision all the details of implementation. A vision, in fact, should not be a feasibility report, just as it cannot be a mere slogan or play of words. But it would be worthwhile to examine projections for a few economic indicators of a developed India against this background. The authors are grateful to T.K. Bhaumik and his team for providing them with a number of analyses and derived information.

In 1994 the World GDP was about 25224 billion. Assuming a growth rate of 2.5 per cent for 1995-2000, 3 per cent for 2000-2010 and 3.5 per cent for 2010 –2020, we can project world GDP to be 55453 billion. The faster growth rates projected for the beginning of the twenty –first century are based on the appearance of newly emerging fast-growing economies. The recent problems affecting the South-east Asian economies would change these figures; however, the overall pointers vis-à-vis India’s development would still be valid.

Worldwide considering countries with GDP of 100 billion and above to be countries in the Big League, India was already in this league during the 1980s along the Cina,Mexico and others. The collective GDP of these nineteen countries in 1980 was about 8168 billion and India’s share was only 1.74 per cent. In the decade of the 1990s, there are new entrants and a few exits, bringing the Big League Countries (BLC) to twenty four. In 1990, the collective GDP of the BLCs was about 17625 billion., but India’s share was 1.44 percent only, a fall compared to better achievers in the world. In 1994, the BLC s were twenty eight in number including Thailand, South Africa and Turkey with collective GDP of 22348 billion. India’s share fell to 1.31 per cent.

Table 1.2 - World GDP

Table 1.3 - Big league of the world economy

Table 1.4 - Distribution of GDP and per capita GDP

Naturally, we need to look at population growth. World population is estimated to be 7 billion by the year 2000 and projected to be 9.4 billion by the year 2020. in India the current population growth rate of 1.8 per cent can be envisioned as coming down to 1.5 per cent by 2020. investment in primary education and basic health care facilities is vital if the rate is to be brought down, as it  must be if we are to achieve the vision of a developed India. With certain assumptions it is possible to  envision a population of about1.2 billion by 2010 and therefore a per capita GDP of 762 at constant prices and a population of about 1.4 billion by 2020 and per capita 1540 at current prices. Similarly, distribution of GDP and per capita GDP according to the income class can be envisaged to be as in table 1.4.

In 2020, the lowest 10 per cent would then have a per capita GDP of 569 and for the ten percentile group it would be 4369, with overall average being 1569. the ration of the lowest to the highest would be about 1: 7.7; the lowest to the average 1:2.75; and the average to the highest 1:2.78. the 1996 ration of the lowest to the top was about the same. This is mostly because of linearity implied in the projections. These types of ratios are also similar in other countries.

It is to be noted that the income distribution pattern in India between 1960 and 1994 has not changed significantly. We would like to recommended that these ratios are further brought down. How this can be done without affecting overall growth rates is the question. Equity cannot be achieved merely by economic measures or fiscal polices or technologies alone. Social awareness and action is also called for. However, it needs to be remembered that to provide any meaningful equity, it is necessary that the economy be strong and the right mix of technologies is developed.

Another crucial human element relates to the poverty scenario. They are good chances that poverty can be fully eliminated by 2007/8 using the present poverty line as a base, i.e. 212.8 at 1996 prices. Personal disposable income is also estimated to increase considerably from the 1996 level of 278.4 to 1717.1. other features of the economy which are likely to emerge are:

• Continually expanding domestic market
• Expansion of the wage economy
• Growing tendency towards self- employment
• Expanding informal economy despite growth of formal sector.
• Simultaneous growth of both production and service sector
• Modernized agriculture- qualitative transition in the rural economy
• Emergence of non-cropping economic activities on a large scale
• Substantial increase in small and medium entrepreneurship with technocrats/ professionals leading entrepreneurship
• An era of financial revolution
• Technological upsurge in manufacturing, finance, R & D integration
• India leading the world in certain sectors, e.g. mineral based industries (steel, aluminium, special alloys, cement), automobiles, electronics, industries based on human knowledge and skills food processing, drugs & pharmaceuticals, etc.

Some social indicators

The literacy rate can be expected to improve from 52 percent in 1991 to roughly 80 percent in 2020. the life expectancy at birth is expected to improve substantially. There is likely to be a large population of young people with aspirations of a better lifestyle. These would be a large reservoir of literate and skilled persons. There is also a greater likelihood of more women taking part in direct economic activities including entrepreneurship.

Even while there will be greater urbanization, there would also be greater urbanization, there would also be greater rural-urban integration economically and socially. Integration with the would economy is also likely to bring a number of different consumption styles and value systems. With increasing prosperity there would also be greater attention to protection of environment. It will be possible to ensure better nutritional and health standards for all our people.

Economic growth, urbanization and exposure to foreign value system can also bring in various conflicts and alienation.

These are aspects which need to be attended to on the social and cultural planes. Perhaps India may have to devise suitable organizational and educational systems and the media to address social and cultural aspects of life. No doubt our ancient wisdom and traditional knowledge would prove invaluable in this effort. Newer information technologies can help in capturing this knowledge and experience of our common people in various parts of the country and make it available to others to learn from.

As we endeavour towards a developed India through economic reforms and other measures, it is worthwhile to recall what the distinguished economist Amartya Sen has said of this.

The central issue is to expand the social opportunities open to people. In so far as these opportunities are compromised by counter-productive regulations and bureaucratic controls, the removal of these hindrances must be seen to be extremely important. But the creation of social opportunities on a broad basis requires much more than the ‘freeing’ of markets. It calls, in particular, for expansion of educational facilities and health care for all and public provisions for nutritional support and social security. It also demands a general political, economic, and asocial programme for reducing the inequalities that blot out social opportunities from the lives of so many hundreds of millions of Indian citizens.

The vision, as would be unfolded in the subsequent chapters, is based on an assessment of the Indian people and India’s resources. India’s core strengths are derived from our resources ---national and human. The technological vision is aimed at increasing social and economic opportunities for our people and to build on the strengths derived from them. A symbolic representation of the vision may be depicted as in fig.1.2. The fig. Indicates not only GDP, per capita, trade and strategic strengths but also reflects achievements in nutrition, in health, in education, in skill, and in providing various social and cultural opportunities for all Indians.

INDIA AND THE WORLD

I have been discussing these points and related issues frequently. I quote from a talk delivered at the Tribune. Trust on 22 February 1998 at Chandigarh.

Through the Cold War has ended, selective tactics are still continuing for ensuring military and economic dominance of the developed countries. Various types of technology denial regimes are still being enforced which are now being mainly targeted against developing countries like India.

Today we encounter twin problems. One side there is a large scale strengthening of our neighbours through supply of arms and clandestine support to their nuclear and missile programmes and on the other side all efforts are being made to weaken our indigenous technology growth through control regimes and dumping of low-tech systems, accompanied with high commercial pitch in critical areas. Growth of indigenous technology and self-reliance are the only answer to the problem.

Thus in the environment around India, the number of missiles and nuclear powers are continuously increasing and destructive weapons continue to pile up around us, in spite of arms reduction treaties.

To understand the implications of various types of warfares that may affect us, we need to take a quick look at the evolution of war weaponry and the types of warfare. I am highlighting this point for the reason that in less than a century we could see change in nature of warfare and its effect on the society.

In early years of human history it was mostly direct human warfare. During the twentieth century up to about 1990, the warfare was weapon driven. The weapons used were guns, tanks, aircraft, ships, submarines and the nuclear weapons deployed on land/sea/air and also reconnaissance spacecraft. Proliferation of conventional, nuclear and biological weapons was at a peak owing to the competition between the super powers.

The next phase, in a new form, has just started from 1990 onwards. The world has graduated into economic warfare. The means used is control of market forces through high technology. The participating nations, apart from the USA, are Japan, the UK, France, Germany, certain South- east Asian countries and a few others. The driving force is the generation of wealth with certain type of economical doctrine.

The urgent issue that we need to address collectively as a nation is, how do we handle the tactics of economic and military dominance in this new form coming from the back door. Today technology is the main driver of economic development at the national level. Therefore, we have to develop indigenous technologies to enhance our competitive edge and to generate national wealth in all segments of economy. Therefore, the need of the hours is arm India with technology.

Vision for the nation

Nations are built by imagination and untiring enthusiastic efforts of generations. One generation transfers the fruits of its toil to another which then takes forward the mission. As the coming generation also has its dreams and aspirations for the nation’s future, it therefore adds something from its side to the national vision; which the next generation strives hard to achieve. This process goes on and the nation climbs steps of glory and gains higher strengths.

The first vision: Freedom for India

Any organization, society or even a nation without a vision is like a ship cruising on the high seas without any aim or direction. It is clarity of national vision which constantly drives the people towards the goal.

Our last generation, the glorious generation of freedom fighters, led by Mahatma Gandhi, and many others set for the nation a vision of free India. This was the first vision, set by the people for the nation. It, therefore, went deep into the minds and the hearts of the masses and soon became the great inspiring and driving force for the people to collectively plunge into the struggle for freedom movement. The unified dedicated efforts of the people from every walk of  life won freedom for the country.

The second vision: Developed India

The next generation has put India strongly on the path of economic, agricultural and technological development. But India has stood too long in the line of developing nations. Let us, collectively, set the second national vision of Developed India. I am confident that it is very much possible and can materialize in 15-20 years time.

Developed status

What does the developed nation mean in terms of the common man? It means the major transformation of our national economy to make it one of the largest economies in the world; where the countrymen live well above the poverty line, their education and health is of high standard; national security reasonably assured, and the core competence in certain major areas gets enhanced significantly so that the production of quality goods, including exports, is rising and thereby bringing all –round prosperity for the countrymen. What is the common link needed to realize these sub-goals? It is the technological strength of the nation, which is the key to reach this developed status.

Build around our strength

The next question that comes to the mind is, how can it be made possible? We have to build and strengthen our national infrastructure in an all-round manner, in a big way. Therefore, we should build around our existing strengths including the vast pool of talented scientists and technologists; and our abundant natural resources. The manpower resource should be optimally utilized to harness health care, services sectors and engineering goods sectors. We should concentrate on development of key areas, namely agriculture production, food processing, materials and also on the emerging niche areas like computer software, biotechnologies and so on. The common link required to bring this transformation is the human resources. Therefore, adequate attention needs to be paid to development of special human resource cadre in the country to meet these objectives.

BEYOND 2020

The attainment of a developed status by 2020 does not mean that we can then rest on our laurels. It is endless pursuit of well-being for all our people. Our vision of a developed nation integrates this element of time within it as well. Only people with many embodied skills and knowledge and with ignited minds can be ready for such a long-term vision. We believe that it is possible to develop our people to reach such a state, provided we can follow a steady path and make available to the people the benefits of change all through their lives. They should see their lives and those of others improving in actual terms, and not merely in statistical tables.

ACTIONS

This means the vision should become a part of the nation, transcending governments- the present and the future. To make this happen, several actions are required. An important element of these efforts is to develop various endogenous technological strengths. After all, technologies are primarily manifestations of human experience and knowledge and thus are capable of further creative development, under enabling environments.

We have often asked ourselves and others why India in its several thousand years of history has rarely tried to expand its territories or to assume a dominating role. Many of the experts and others with whom we had a dialogue referred to some special features of the Indian psyche which could partly explain this: greater tolerance, less discipline, the lack of a sense of retaliation, more flexibility in accepting outsiders, great adherence to hierarchy, and emphasis on personal safety over adventure. Some felt that a combination of many of these features have affected our ability to pursue a vision tenaciously. We will give glimpses of these views in later chapters.

We believe that as a nation and as a people we need to shed our cynicism and initiate concrete action to realize the second vision for the nation. The first vision, seeded around 1857, was for India to become politically independent; the second one is to become a fully developed nation. Our successful action will lead to further action, bringing the vision much closer to reality. Perhaps in a  decade from now we may even be judged as having been cautions and conservative! We will be happy if the action taken proves that they could have been still bolder in advocating a faster march towards a developed India!.

We had written this chapter before the nuclear tests on 11 May 1998.  the details of the numbers projected in the tables and figures may change but our belief in what we say there remains unchanged. In any case, they are meant to be indicative of directions for change. We have seen the reactions to the tests within the country in the Indian and foreign media. We have also had the benefit of private conversations with many Indians. In all these, I observed one striking feature: a number of persons in the fifty-plus bracket and especially those who are in powerful positions in government, industry, business and academia, seem to lack the will to face problems. They would like to be supported by other countries in every action we have to take in the country. This is not a good sign after fifty years of an independent India which has all along emphasized ‘self reliance’.

We are not advocating xenophobia nor isolation. But all of us have to be clear that nobody is going to hold our hands to lead us into the ‘developed country club’. Nuclear tests are the culmination of efforts to apply nuclear technology for national security. When we carried out the tests in May 1998, India witnessed issuing of sanctions by a few developed countries. In the process, the same countries have purposely collapsed their own doctrine of global marketing, global finance systems and global village. Hence India has to evolve its own original economic policy, as well as development, business and marketing strategies.

It is not just that the Indian nuclear tests are resented. If tomorrow Indian software export achieves a sizable share in the global market, becoming third of fourth of fifth in size, we should except different types of reactions. Today, we are a small percentage of the total trade in software or information technology. Similarly, if India becomes a large enough exporter of wheat or rice or agro-food products to take it into an exclusive club or four or five top foodgrain-exporting nations, various new issues would be raised couched in scientific and technical terms ranging from phyto-sanitary specifications to our contribution to global warming. Multilateral regimes to these effects exists in terms of General Agreement on Trade and Tarifs (GATT) and other environment related multilateral treaties. India cannot afford not to sign these treaties, though we could have done our homework a little better during the negotiations. We have to face what we have with us. We need to play the multilateral game, attract foreign investments, have joint ventures and be an active international player. Still, we have to remember that those who aim high, have to learn to walk alone too, when required.

There are economic and social problems in South-east Asia and Japan. Each country is trying to tackle them in its own way. There is a variety in the approaches. Some may overcome the difficulties and some may not. We believe India can still emerge a major developed country and all its people can contribute to and share in the prosperity. Our hope lies in the fact that even in the older generation, there are a number of persons who are ready to face the challenges. Most of the people are proud to see an India that is bold. In addition, the younger generation is ready to take action in such a complex environment. Many of them have to contend with difficult hierarchial structures in government or in academia. They are ready to rough it out. That is where our hopes lies for the realization of the second Vision.